SUCCESS HAS SCRIPT
We are before a significant degree of uncertainty regarding the future and the definitive timescale for the virus to be controlled as well as to which changes in daily life during the testing empiric phase shall remain while facing many other vague stances that blur any prognosis.
We have no idea of the financial cost necessary to control the pandemic and the search for the “new normal” is far from ending which feeds grim unpredictability and not rarely hints entrepreneurs at the imponderable “shot in the dark”.
Even being slow, the economy keeps moving forward and various sectors have adjusted and evolved. As a mitigating factor there is still the hope that there will be “calm after the storm”, not just consequences but also the probability of anxious expectations and pragmatic trends that reveal the strength and the repeatability of such affirmation. History itself corroborates this when registering the recovery of economic loss deriving from the control of the epidemic. It has always been this way and there is a huge chance that such performance shall repeat itself.
Confidence in human ability to fight the virus may be perceived in the optimism shown in various analyses with estimates that, for example, the epidemic will not be able to reduce global population. World population growth is expected to increase even in spite of this significant slowdown and is likely to reach 9,7 billion people by 2050 (UN and Worldometers).
Global GDP is to increase by 5.8% in 2021 (IMF), stimulated by the evolution of the five main economies that represent 55% of the world’s GDP, that is, USA (4.5%), China (9.2%), India (7.4%), Japan (3.0%) and Germany (5.2%), with a 2.9% Brazilian growth share.
The consequence will be a growing international demand for both industrialised products and commodities in a growing market with increasing productivity and innovation levels plus the addition of 2 billion new consumers in the next 30 years.
Consequently, we are before an encouraging perspective. However, it must be stressed that the results shall not reproduce by sector but in an even or indiscriminate way.
While believing that “no harm lasts forever”, it helps pondering that optimistic prospects for any sector shall not generate spontaneously and shall demand a strong attitude, institutional organisation and strategic repositioning.
Success does not happen by chance.
Hélio Mendes – Government and Business Consultant – www.institutolatino.com.br
Luiz Bittencourt – Metallurgical Engineer/UFF/RJ/Brazil; Master of Engineering./McGill University/Montreal/Canada; Postgraduated in International Trade /UniversidadeMackenzie/SP/Brazil Email – [email protected]
